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MINGS Q1 Forecast Review

In November we published the 2009 MINGS FORECAST book in which we covered amongst other topics, outlook for the World and for Malaysia. We now review the forcast on a quarterly  basis and highlight key events in particular how the economy and the political situation have panned out .


The Reality

Despite the Obama euphoria, 2009 opened sluggishly.  As predicted in the chart on pg 31 of our book, there was a strong rally in the last weeks of April. The KLCI indices showed a steady climb in the share market, breaching the 1000 mark on May 4. 

Also as mentioned, Building and Property, Finance, Export and Tourism sectors under performed.  

MINGS Forecast

Q1 2009, Malaysia, Politics ... what we said

During the first two months, those in power would be in an unfavourable position as a result of the Opposition’s strengths.

This could mean that the Opposition would continue to harp on and leech on the ruling party

The Reality

In the first two months, i.e. from end of January to end of March, newspapers reported the Opposition party questioning how money has been spent by BN in the past; thatthe component parties in PR were still unable to find their footing; and allegations of money politics in UMNO.

Despite high expectations, the three by-elections did not yield a stronger showing by the ruling coalition. BN conceded Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau. It won Batang Ai with a 1854 majority.

MINGS Forecast....Q1 2009, the economy


And the World in a glance…
What we said… pg 29,


....and the reality

From Nepal to Middle East and Eastern United States
Economy very poor
Despite the stimulus package, losses continued to mount in Wall Street , Detroit and corporate America.Fires in February, Epidemic/Pandemic in April
Swine flu outbreak in Mexico has claimed more than 150 lives and started to spread beyond this sector.

Sumatra, parts of Indonesia
Fires in April

Forest fires in Sumatra raged for weeks in April resulting in thick haze shutting down airports in the area.

South East Asia, Australia, New Zealand
Epidemic/pandemic in April

Increasing concern of influenza is imminent, with related deaths reported in
Indonesia and Vietnam in late March and April.

Thailand, Indochina, Taiwan, Western United States
Politics: Very unstable, mainly caused by money-driven politics
War and instability: Theft and war involving the military. Court battles

Indeed Thailand is embroiled in political upheaval for months with no respite in sight.

 
 
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